基于PCA-SVR-ARMA的狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温组合预测模型

为提高狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温预测精度,提出了基于主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)、支持向量回归机(Support Vector Regression,SVR)融合自回归滑动平均(Autoregressive Moving Average,ARMA)模型的狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温组合预测模型。在建模过程中,运用主成分分析法筛选狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温的关键影响因子,消除变量之间冗余信息,约简预测模型结构;采用SVR-ARMA构建狮头鹅禽养殖舍气温组合预测模型,先通过SVR对气温进行预测,再由基于ARMA模型的残差预测值修正气温预测结果。利用该模型对广东省汕尾市2018年7月21日至2018年7月30日期间的狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温进行预测。结果表明,该组合预测模型取得了良好的预测性能,与标准BP神经网络、标准SVR、PCA-BPNN(反向传播神经网络,BackPropagationNeuralNetwork)、PCA-SVR和PCA-BPNN-ARMA等模型对比分析,其评价指标平均绝对误差、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别为0.183 2℃、0.454 0℃和0.005 9,均表明所提出的组合模型具有更高的预测效果,不仅能够满足狮头鹅养殖禽舍气温实际精准调控的需要,还为狮头鹅健康养殖和种苗繁育环境精细化管理提供决策。     

不同增稠剂对农药可分散油悬浮剂稳定性的影响

为明确不同增稠剂对以矿物油为分散介质的油悬浮体系稳定性的影响,以12.5%丙炔·吡嘧(丙炔噁草酮·吡嘧磺隆)可分散油悬浮剂为对象,通过流变学和多重光散射方法,研究了有机膨润土、有机高分子和气相二氧化硅3类增稠剂单独使用及有机膨润土和其他两类增稠剂分别搭配使用对可分散油悬浮剂物理稳定性的影响。结果表明:所有样品的流动特性指数(n)均小于1,为假塑性流体,具有触变性。除有机膨润土和高分子增稠剂Atlox Rheostrux100组合使用时体系更符合Casson方程外,其余样品均更符合Herschel-Bulkley方程。单独使用时,有机膨润土对保证体系稳定的效果相对较好;Atlox Rheostrux 100和Atlox Rheostrux200两种高分子增稠剂的效果差别较大,其中Atlox Rheostrux 100效果更好,这可能是由分子结构差异造成;两种气相二氧化硅类增稠剂由于不能有效形成氢键,效果较差。将有机膨润土和有机高分子增稠剂组合使用时,体系的稳定性有所提升,其中有机膨润土869和Atlox Rheostrux 100组合使用效果更好,体系具有较高的黏度,且具有良好的触变性,物理稳定性优异;有机膨润土869和疏水气相二氧化硅R974组合使用时则效果没有明显的提升。研究表明,流变学和多重光散射两种方法均能较好地表征可分散油悬浮剂的物理稳定性;新型高分子增稠剂和有机膨润土具有协同作用,将二者合理组合添加能大幅提升可分散油悬浮剂的稳定性。     

Influence of salinity and moisture on the threshold shear velocity of saline sand in the Qarhan Desert,Qaidam Basin of China: A wind tunnel experiment

Determination of the threshold shear velocity is essential for predicting sand transport, dust release and desertification. In this study, a wind tunnel experiment was conducted to evaluate the influence of salinity and moisture on the threshold shear velocity of saline sand. Saline sand samples (mean particle size of 164.50-186.08 μm and the total silt, clay and salt content of 0.80%-8.25%) were collected from three saline sand dunes (one barchan dune and two linear dunes) in the Qarhan Desert, Qaidam Basin of China. Original saline sand samples were placed in two experimental trays for wet and dry processing to simulate deliquescence and desiccation, respectively. Surface moisture content ranging from 0.30% to 1.90% was generated by the steam method so that the saline sand can absorb water in a saturated water vapor environment. The motion of sand particles was determined by the observers with a solid laser. The laser sheet (0.80 cm thick), which was emitted by the solid laser, horizontally covered the sand surface and was bound to the sand. Results show that the cohesion of saline sand results from a combination of salt and water. The threshold shear velocity increases exponentially with the increase in crust thickness for the linear sand dunes. There is a positive linear correlation between the original moisture content and relative threshold shear velocity. The threshold shear velocity of dewatered sand is greater than that of wet sand with the same original moisture content. Our results will provide valuable information about the sand transport of highly saline soil in the desert.     

Reducing crude protein variability and maximizing savings when formulating corn-soybean meal-based feeds

Crude protein in corn and soybean meal have been documented to vary, and such inherent variability can result in under- or over-feeding of CP when feeds are formulated, leading to reduced bird growth, added input costs, and increased environmental pollution. The purpose of this study was to compare 2 grain-handling techniques and 2 feed formulation methods (linear vs. stochastic programming) to reduce CP variability in finished feeds and determine resulting costs or savings. The 2 grain-handling techniques were placing all the random batches of each delivered ingredient in to (1) a single bin (1-bin method) or (2) segregating above- and below-average samples into 2 bins (2-bin method). A fast way of estimating the composition of the ingredients is now available (near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy). Microsoft Excel workbooks were constructed to solve broiler starter feed formulation problems. Formulating feeds by linear and stochastic models based on the 2-bin method reduced CP variability by at least 50% compared with the 1-bin method. Formula cost was reduced by ˜20 cents per ton (averages of August 2012 United States ingredient prices) when the 2-bin method was used with the linear model. Formulating feed with a margin of safety increased formula cost by $3.40 per ton. Stochastic feed formulation increased formula cost to meet the specified CP level in feed at any probability of success, and formula cost was reduced substantially with the 2-bin method (up to $6.47 per ton). The magnitude of savings and reduced feed variability suggested that, regardless of the costs associated with building extra bins, the 2-bin method can be economically efficient in the long run. Therefore, it could be possible to split the batches of feed ingredients at a feed mill into above- or below-average bins before feed formulation to reduce CP variability and to maximize savings.     

Potato absorption and phytoavailability of Cd,Ni, Cu,Zn and Pb in sierozem soils amended with municipal sludge compost

Effects of sludge utilization on the mobility and phytoavailability of heavy metals in soil-plant systems have attracted broad attention in recent years. In this study, we analyzed the effects of municipal sludge compost(MSC) on the solubility and plant uptake of Cd, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb in a soil-potato system to explore the mobility, potato plant uptake and enrichment of these five heavy metals in sierozem soils amended with MSC through a potato cultivation trial in Lanzhou University of China in 2014. Ridge regression analysis was conducted to investigate the phytoavailability of heavy metals in amended soils. Furthermore, CaCl_2, CH_3 COONH_4, CH_3COOH, diethylene triamine pentacetic acid(DTPA) and ethylene diamine tetraacetic acid(EDTA) were used to extract the labile fraction of heavy metals from the amended soils. The results show that the MSC could not only improve the fertility but also increase the dissolved organic carbon(DOC) content of sierozem soils. The total concentrations and labile fraction proportions of heavy metals increase with increasing MSC percentage in sierozem soils. In amended soils, Cd has the highest solubility and mobility while Ni has the lowest solubility and mobility among the five heavy metals. The MSC increases the concentrations of heavy metals in the root, stem, peel and tuber of the potato plant, with the concentrations being much higher in the stem and root than in the peel and tuber. Among the five heavy metals, the bioconcentration factor value of Cd is the highest, while that of Ni is the lowest. The complexing agent(DTPA and EDTA) extractable fractions of heavy metals are the highest in terms of phytoavailability. Soil properties(including organic matter, p H and DOC) have important impacts on the phytoavailability of heavy metals. Our results suggest that in soil-potato systems, although the MSC may improve soil fertility, it can also increase the risk of soils exposed to heavy metals.     

常州市钟楼区耕地产能空间分布与影响因素分析

耕地产能评价对于耕地资源保护及质量提升具有重要的现实意义。通过构建耕地产能评价体系，运用空间自相关及主成分回归分析法对常州市钟楼区的耕地产能进行空间分布及影响因素分析。结果表明：基于气候、自然因素和技术水平综合指标的耕地产能评价体系具有适用性和可操作性；钟楼区耕地产能等别分为6等和7等，其中6等地占比达到97.55%，等别空间分布呈现出城区内部街道低、外围地区较高的格局；耕地产能整体空间集聚性显著，各街道（乡镇）均表现出较强的空间正相关性，正相关类型（HH型和LL型）多呈现组团式，负相关类型（LH型和HL型）则分布零散；耕地自然质量和技术水平是影响钟楼区耕地产能空间分布的主要驱动因素，其中，耕作层厚度、有机质含量、障碍层距地表深度和土壤养分元素为主导因素，pH值、灌溉保证程度和排水条件为次要因素。因此，应从增强耕地自然质量、提高耕地技术水平等方面制定提高耕地产能的针对性措施。     

明胶骨原料碳、氮稳定同位素的地域性差异研究

为探讨不同地域来源的明胶骨原料中碳、氮稳定同位素的分布特征及其相关性,本试验采用元素分析-稳定同位素比率质谱仪测定了广西、内蒙古和山东3个主产区的牛骨样品及当地牧草饲料样品中的¹³C和¹⁵N同位素组成,并结合线性回归讨论了牛骨样品中δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N值的相关性与牛食谱组成的关系。结果表明,广西地区骨样品中δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N值的相关性较好(R²=0.401 8),而内蒙古和山东地区骨样品中δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N值的相关性较差(R²<0.1),反映了3地牛食物的来源稳定性及主要成分存在明显差异,对各地牛食谱结构推测的结果与实际牧草饲料样品中δ¹³C和δ¹⁵N值的地区分布规律也较为一致。本研究初步揭示了明胶骨原料中碳、氮稳定同位素产生地域性差异的原因,不仅为动物生态学研究提供了有益信息,更为动物制品产地溯源研究提供了新思路。     

北京松山自然保护区主要树种冠幅预测模型研究

冠幅作为林业研究的关键因子，开展冠幅的研究对于精准林业发展具有重要意义。为了更好地利用冠幅对树木其他因子进行预测，选取了北京市松山自然保护区油松、白蜡、蒙古栎等14个常见树种作为研究对象，基于6种回归方程，借助样地实测数据分别建立每个树种的胸径 冠幅和树高 冠幅模型，并针对每个树种筛选出的最优方程进行了精度检验。结果表明，研建的14个树种的模型具有较好的拟合精度，决定系数R2绝大多数都大于0.5，其中，核桃的胸径 冠幅模型最高，R2=0.951，树高-冠幅模型R2=0.887，蒙古栎树高-冠幅模型最低，R2=0.506，也超过了0.5。所建模型的精度评价指标具有一定的统计学意义，对北京市松山地区大面积林分参数的预测预估有重要的参考价值。     

引进甘蔗种质资源杂交后代适应性评价

通过对引进甘蔗种质资源24个杂交后代的的10个农艺性状进行主成分分析、回归分析与通径分析,科学评价引种甘蔗种质资源在广西本地的农艺性状表现,探究各农艺性状间的协同制约关系,为甘蔗种质资源的精准评价和杂交育种材料的科学选配提供理论依据。结果表明:(1)主要农艺性状变异系数为6.79%~29.44%,24个甘蔗种质在分蘖和蔗糖产量上有较大的遗传改良潜力。(2)主成分分析将这10个农艺性状凝聚成4个主成分,分别为产量因子、有效茎因子、糖分因子和出苗因子,贡献率分别是35.2%、16.5%、15.3%、12.1%,累计贡献率达到79.1%;(3)通径分析中各性状对糖产量的直接通径系数大小依次为:蔗茎产量(0.927)>蔗糖分(0.399)>单茎重(0.039)。表明:甘蔗品种(系)GUC23-1、GUC15-2、GUC23、GUC34、GUC25在广西的丰产性最优,在甘蔗引种和选育中,考虑将蔗茎产量、蔗糖分、单茎重作为主要选择性状。     

春甘薯—秋白菜复种栽培技术规程

为了解决石家庄地区春甘薯—秋白菜生产中品种不配套、栽培技术不规范、病虫害较为严重等问题,充分发挥甘薯节水抗旱、营养均衡、祛病保健,白菜营养丰富、品质柔嫩、口味颇佳的独特优势,特编写了《春甘薯—秋白菜复种栽培技术规程》,详细规范了春甘薯—秋白菜复种栽培的基础条件、茬口安排、品种选择以及春甘薯栽培、秋白菜复种的技术要点。确保了每667 m^2春甘薯产量在2000 kg以上,大白菜产量在4000 kg以上,每667 m^2种植效益比传统模式增加1000元。为种植春甘薯、秋白菜的菜农和蔬菜生产企业提供了技术支撑。